(London time)
Monday, May 27
Today will be almost a holiday on global financial markets due to significant closures. London’s financial district, known as the City, will be closed for the Spring Bank Holiday. Similarly, New York's Wall Street will be closed in observance of Memorial Day in the USA. These closures mean that two of the world's major financial hubs will be inactive, leading to significantly reduced trading volumes and lower volatility in the markets that remain open. Investors and traders can expect a quieter day with potentially fewer market movements, as the absence of these key players typically results in subdued trading activity globally.
In Japan, a significant event is scheduled with a public address by Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Recently, the BoJ has found itself in a precarious situation. The central bank is under pressure to raise interest rates to prevent the complete erosion of the yen’s purchasing power. However, they face a delicate balance as increasing rates too much could push the country, which is heavily indebted with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 264%, towards insolvency. Governor Ueda's address will likely provide insights into how the BoJ plans to navigate this challenging economic landscape.
Tuesday, May 28
Until the American markets reopen, the macroeconomic calendar will be relatively sparse. At 2:00 PM, the US will release the March readings for two significant house price indices: the S&P/Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indices. These indices provide critical data on the housing market's health and price trends, offering insights into the real estate sector's performance.
An hour later, at 3:00 PM, the Conference Board will release the May consumer confidence index. This index measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situations. Consumer confidence is a key indicator of economic health, as higher confidence levels generally translate to increased consumer spending.
Finally, at 3:30 PM, the Dallas Federal Reserve will publish its business activity index for May. This index provides a snapshot of economic conditions in the Texas region, reflecting the health of the manufacturing and services sectors in one of the country’s largest and most economically significant states.
Wednesday, May 29
Wednesday will be marked by a focus on inflation data, hence dubbed “Inflation Day.” The day will begin with Australia releasing its CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation statistics overnight. These statistics are crucial for understanding the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising in Australia, impacting economic policy and consumer behavior.
Later in the day, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release April statistics for the M3 money supply. The M3 money supply includes cash, deposits, and other liquid assets within the economy, and it is an important measure of the amount of money circulating in the Eurozone. After experiencing a brief period of monetary deflation, where the M3 money supply was lower than the previous year, the amount of euros in circulation has been increasing again since the start of the year. This rise could have implications for inflation and economic growth in the region.
At 1:00 PM, Germany’s Destatis will publish the preliminary CPI inflation reading for May. In April, the consumer goods basket prices were 2.2% higher than a year earlier. This data will provide insights into the inflationary trends in Europe’s largest economy, influencing both market expectations and ECB policy decisions.
From the United States, the Richmond Fed will release its index at 3:00 PM, which offers a snapshot of economic activity in the Richmond area. Later, at 7:00 PM, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be published. This report compiles anecdotal information on current economic conditions across the Federal Reserve districts, providing a comprehensive overview of the U.S. economy’s health.
In South Africa, parliamentary elections will take place, which could potentially end the African National Congress's (ANC) 30-year dominance. The outcome of these elections could have significant political and economic implications for the country, influencing its future direction and stability.
Thursday, May 30
On Thursday, Spain will release its preliminary CPI inflation results for May at 8:00 AM. This data will be closely watched as it provides insights into inflationary pressures within the Spanish economy. Simultaneously, Switzerland will release its GDP data for the first quarter, offering a snapshot of the country's economic performance during the initial months of the year.
At 10:00 AM, the European Commission will present the May economic sentiment readings for the Eurozone. These readings provide an overview of business and consumer confidence across the member states, indicating the overall economic mood and potential future economic activity in the region.
At 1:30 PM, the United States will release the first revision of its Q1 GDP data. The initial estimate was disappointing, failing to meet the expectations of economists and those relying on econometric models. The revision will be scrutinized to see if it changes the initial negative outlook. Additionally, the Labor Department will release its weekly jobless claims data, which is an important indicator of labor market health.
Also significant for the oil market, the weekly fuel inventory report from the U.S. will be released. This report provides data on the supply of crude oil and its products, influencing oil prices and market expectations.
Friday, May 31
Japan will continue to release important economic data, including the May core CPI inflation for Tokyo, April industrial production, and retail sales. These indicators will provide a comprehensive view of economic activity and inflationary trends in Japan’s capital.
From China, at 2:30 AM, the May PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors will be published. These indices are crucial for gauging the health of China’s economy, particularly in its key industrial and service sectors.
At 7:45 AM, France will release its preliminary CPI inflation data for May and its GDP data for Q1. These statistics will offer insights into the economic performance and inflationary pressures in one of the Eurozone's largest economies.
At 10:00 AM, the preliminary data on May HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) inflation for the Eurozone will be published. This data is vital for understanding inflation trends across the Eurozone, influencing ECB policy decisions.
At 1:30 PM, the U.S. will release a report on April incomes and expenditures, including the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) deflator. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and any surprises in this data could significantly impact market expectations and economic forecasts.
Lastly, at 2:45 PM, the Chicago PMI will be published. This index has recently indicated a significant downturn in the industrial sector in the Chicago area, and its latest reading will be closely watched for signs of economic recovery or further decline.
25.05.2024
Comments