The global currency market, with a staggering daily valuation of $7.5 trillion, is currently undergoing a marked increase in complexity, presenting formidable challenges to the intricate process of price discovery. Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York keenly observe this evolving landscape, attributing the shifting dynamics to the advent of novel foreign-exchange trading platforms in the financial realm as reported by Bloomberg.
A noteworthy transformation is apparent in the proportion of interdealer trading, a traditional practice where banks historically matched opposing customer flows. This form of trading has witnessed a decline, diminishing to less than half of the overall turnover compared to nearly two-thirds recorded 25 years ago, as evidenced by data from the Bank for International Settlements. In contrast, multi-dealer platforms, which empower customers with a broader spectrum of choices for potential trading partners, are on the ascendancy, reshaping the dynamics in the world's largest financial market.
The researchers, under the guidance of Lisa Chung, Director of Capital Markets Trading at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, perceive these developments in a positive light. They see them as sources of increased competition and expanded choices for market participants. However, a note of caution is sounded, suggesting that the greater diversity of trading options may have inadvertently complicated the intricate process of price discovery within the foreign exchange (forex) market.
Amidst these changes, interdealer trading venues such as Refinitiv and EBS find their roles diminishing, with dealers now managing approximately 80% of spot market trades internally. This internalization of trades has significantly loosened the grip of these traditional interdealer platforms on the market. Chung emphasizes this point by highlighting the substantial decline in trading volume within the primary market over the past decade, underscoring that it is no longer the exclusive hub for price discovery.
Beyond the challenges related to price discovery, the global currency market faces additional formidable hurdles. The imminent move to settle American stock transactions in just one day, known as T+1, is expected to exert a profound impact on the market. Simultaneously, the ongoing development of central bank digital currencies emerges as another significant factor influencing the landscape. The report posits that these developments open the possibility for quasi-immediate settlement of FX trades, a scenario that may have far-reaching consequences for the fundamental structure and functioning of the global FX and payment ecosystem, potentially prompting a fundamental reevaluation of the roles played by current intermediaries in the process.
Commentaires